As a community, we need to be aware of the local impacts of climate change, to understand the vulnerabilities of social systems, natural resources and infrastructure, and to work to develop and implement strategies to adapt and increase our resilience with the goal of reducing risk, avoiding economic losses, and improving community livability and the quality of our natural systems.

—Broward County on creating a climate resilient community

 

Expert predictions about the timing and amount of sea level rise (SLR) vary significantly, ranging from between 6” and 10” between now and 2030. Nearly 2,000 homes and 200 businesses in eastern Broward will be impacted by just a one foot rise in sea level at an estimated cost of $469 million. With a two-foot rise, the impact multiplies nearly six fold, with property loss increasing to $4.54 billion. Experts say delaying action to mitigate the effects of SLR puts new investments at risk.

The risks to coastal communities of a delayed or haphazard response go beyond property and infrastructure damage to include threats to the availability of regional flood insurance, public liability, threats to bond-ratings, increased private financing costs, public liability and municipal financial strain.

As a result, planners, builders and city officials in coastal communities are beginning to acknowledge that they must take SLR and the effects of climate change into consideration when planning and evaluating development projects. But how do they choose among a range of competing SLR predictions? “[They] say, just give me a number. How many feet [of sea level rise] should I design for? They don’t want to hear [that there is a range]. They want to know, on this site [‘What measure] should I use?’ says Lenny Vialpondo (Deputy Director, Broward County). But he thinks planners and developers should think about the likely useful life of their project and adapt their plans and decision-making to fit the projected lifespan—and their risk tolerance. Jason Leichty (Environmental Projects Coordinator, Broward County) notes that valuable infrastructure, for instance a nuclear power plant, should be accorded a lower risk tolerance and use the most aggressive sea level rise projections when planning. “[In that situation], you wouldn’t just want to hope for the best that it’s the lowest [projection]. But if you’re [building an inexpensive] deck, that’s not a big deal. You could use the lowest reasonable projection,” says Leichty.

Predictions about the impact of climate change on SLR evolve rapidly, even as stakeholders are in the midst of making and approving development plans. This can lead to stakeholder clashes as each supports a plan ideal for possible—but significantly different—futures. Rather than agreeing to compromise, which could result in sub-optimal decisions, stakeholders could evaluate the trade-offs between scenarios, focusing on the possible future (rather than current) conditions. This type of decision-making leads to creating acceptable outcomes over a range of plausible futures rather than choosing the best plan for a single, agreed-upon SLR projection. Successful projects will be those that are designed for probable conditions at a predetermined end of project life.

The goal is ultimately to make communities more resilient, able to withstand and adapt to SLR. The Institute for Sustainable Communities defines resilience as “bouncing forward, not bouncing back,” recommending that communities stop building sensitive infrastructure in flood vulnerable areas and instead, reevaluate the nature and location of a project, noting:

It is important to consider new standards and benchmarks (such as storm return frequencies, base flood elevations, and standardization of the sea level datum) to be applied as development and redevelopment happen so that progress is made towards a more resilient built environment as new investment occurs.

Broward County, for instance, has developed resiliency strategies which emphasize the need to move beyond site-specific concerns to community considerations, noting that solutions for single sites will be sub-optimal for the community as a whole. Instead, the County advocates for a regional planning and design approach—a unified effort—coordinating between local governments, regional agencies, businesses and consumers. Ultimately, a climate resilient community is one that avoids losses, enjoys economic vitality, protects the environment, reduces risk and has ensured its own well being.